作　者：万晓琼 王少龙
关键词：家庭消费结构；收入分布；QUAIDS模型；支出弹性；国内国际双循环发展格局
摘　要：

为形成国内国际双循环发展格局，提升居民消费水平便成为当前经济工作的重点。基于中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据，通过将中国居民家庭依据流动性约束和人均家庭净资产情况分为四类，利用 QUAIDS 结构方程可以分析中国居民家庭 2010-2018 年的消费趋势及演化特征。研究发现：第一，2010-2018 年四种类型家庭都经历了收入和消费水平的提升，其中富裕类家庭高收入群体也在增多，富裕和非流动性约束的家庭消费提升更为明显。第二，中国居民家庭消费结构整体呈现升级态势，但中低收入家庭住房、医疗负担仍然较重。第三，2014-2018 年医疗保健、交通通讯、教育文化的消费占比随市场价格的上涨而增加，表明这些消费缺乏弹性。第四，从支出弹性来看，家庭用品、医疗保健和教育文化表现出 “奢侈品”特性，表明中国居民家庭愈加注重生活品质的提升。第五，四种类型家庭中，富裕和非流动性约束的家庭在家庭用品、交通通讯方面的支出弹性更小，而在教育文化方面的支出弹性更大，表明这类家庭也更加注重精神文化需求。因此，政府应致力于稳定提升居民收入、扩大社会保障覆盖度、深化供给侧结构性改革，有的放矢地提振整体居民消费，为加快形成国内国际双循环发展格局增添动力。

 

Consumption Trends and Characteristics of Chinese Households

Wan Xiaoqiong(Information Center for Social Science of Renmin University of China) Wang Shaolong(Renmin University of China)

 

Abstract In order to establish a domestic and international dual cycle development pattern, the im‐ provement of residents' consumption level has become a focus of the current economic work. Based on Chi‐ nese household tracking (CFPS) survey data, Chinese households are divided into four categories according to liquidity constraints and per capita net assets, and the consumption characteristics and evolution trends of Chinese households from 2010 to 2018 were analyzed by using QUAIDS structural equation. The study found that four types of households have experienced an improvement of income and consumption level from 2010 to 2018, in which the high-income groups of wealthy families also increased and the increase in con‐ sumption of wealthy and illiquid households was more obvious. Second, the overall consumption structure of Chinese households is upgrading, but the housing and medical burden of low-and middle-income families is still heavy. Third, the proportion of consumption of health care, transportation, communications, education and culture from 2014 to 2018 increased with the rise of their own prices, indicating that these consumptions are inflexible. Fourth, from the perspective of expenditure elasticity, household goods, health care, education and culture showed the characteristics of "luxury", indicating that Chinese families pay more attention to the improvement of the quality of life. Fifth, among the four types of families, wealthy and non-liquidity con‐ straints families are less flexible in household goods, transportation and communications, but are more flexi‐ ble in education and culture, indicating that these families also pay more attention to spiritual and cultural needs. Therefore, the government should strive to steadily increase residents' income, expand social security coverage, deepen supply-side structural reform, and boost overall household consumption in a targeted man‐ ner, so as to add impetus to accelerate the establishment of a domestic and international dual cycle develop‐ ment pattern.

Key words household consumption structure; income distribution; QUAIDS model; price and expendi‐ ture elasticity; domestic and international dual cycle development pattern

 

■ 作者简介 万晓琼，中国人民大学书报资料中心经济编辑部应用经济学科执行主编；北京 100872;

王少龙（通讯作者），中国人民大学应用经济学院博士研究生。

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