作　者：刘力臻 张鹏
关键词：政府隐性担保；异质性企业“；双支柱”调控框架；BGG-DSGE 模型
摘　要：

不发生系统性金融风险，是保障中国经济平稳增长的底线。政府隐性担保有利于降低信贷融资的摩擦成本，发挥应对危机的兜底作用，但亦会形成国有企业和非国有企业在信贷获取和偿还约束上的偏向性分布，造成信贷市场的分割和信贷资源的错配，并随着错配度的加深，给实体经济和金融市场带来新的波动。传统的货币政策与新型的逆周期宏观审慎政策的有效搭配，被称为“双支柱”调控框架，用以应对和防范系统性金融风险。实证分析表明，当经济面临各种风险冲击时，“双支柱”政策对国有企业的调控效应相比非国有企业更为明显，有利于抑制企业过度负债行为，起到控制非理性抬高杠杆率及抑制系统性风险积累的作用，更有利于实现宏观经济政策的多重目标，提升经济福利，促进信贷资源有效配置，进而提高经济运行的质量、效率和安全性。 

 

Implicit Government Guarantee, Misallocation of Credit Resources and the "Dual-pillar" Framework

Analysis Based on BGG-DSGE Model

Liu Lizhen，Zhang Peng（Northeast Normal University）

 

Abstract The absence of systematic financial risks is the bottom line to ensure the steady growth of China's economy. The implicit government guarantee is conducive to reducing the friction cost of credit financing and playing the role of financial support to cope with crises, but it will also form an asymmetric distribution of credit acquisition and repayment constraints between state-owned enterprises and non-state- owned enterprises, resulting in resource misallocation in the credit market and bringing new fluctuations to the real economy and financial markets as the degree of resource misallocation deepens. The effective combination of traditional monetary policy and the new counter-cyclical macro prudential policy is known as the "dual-pillar" regulatory framework to cope with and prevent systematic financial risks. The empirical analysis shows that when the economy is faced with various risk shocks, the regulatory effect of the "dual-pillar" policy on state-owned enterprises is more obvious than that on non-state-owned enterprises. The "dual-pillar" pol‐ icy helps to curb excessive debt enterprise behavior, to control the irrational increase leverage and to inhibit the action of the accumulation of systematic risks. The policy is also conducive to achieving multiple objectives of macroeconomic policies, improving the level of social welfare, and promoting the effective allocation of credit resources so as to improve the quality, efficiency and security of economic operations.

Key words implicit government guarantee; heterogeneous enterprises; dual-pillar regulation framework; BGG-DSGE model

 

■    作者简介 刘力臻，经济学博士，东北师范大学经济与管理学院教授、博士生导师；吉林 长春 130117；张 鹏（通讯作者），东北师范大学经济与管理学院博士研究生。

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