作　者：朱兰 万广华
关键词：中等收入群体；标准界定；规模测度；特征分析
摘　要：

中等收入标准的界定是精准施策扩大中等收入群体规模、实现高水平共同富裕的前提。基于共同富裕内涵与“尽力而为量力而行、逐步推进”的原则，提出新的中等收入标准界定方法，可以得到兼具全国统一标准与允许地区差异的中等收入标准。利用1978-2020 年全国的收入分组数据，以及1980-2020 年31 个省级层面的收入分组数据，采用模拟收入分布方法对个体数据进行还原，测算全国和不同省份中等收入群体模型和比重，结果发现：按国家统计局标准，我国中等收入群体规模不断扩大，2020 年中等收入群体比重为36.79%；中等收入群体内部收入差距较大，脆弱程度较高；中等收入群体空间分布不均衡，具有东多西少的特征；五类人群是中等收入群体主要组成部分，规模总数为5 亿人左右。最后， 通过对标准、方法、数据和收入进行四维对比，论证研究结论可信，为进一步制定扩大中等收入群体比重政策提供有效支撑。

 

Scale Measurement and Characteristic Analysis of China's Middle-income Groups

Zhu Lan（Chinese Academy of Social Sciences）

Wan Guanghua（Fudan University）

Abstract Defining the middle-income standard is the prerequisite for expanding the scale of middle-income groups and achieving common prosperity with targeted measures. Based on the connotation of common prosperity and the principle of "doing everything within one's capacity for steady progress", this paper proposes a new method to adjust the national unified standard so that it can reflect regional differences, then use the simulated income distribution method to restore individual income data, and calculates the model and proportion of middle-income groups across the country and different provinces, making use of the grouped national income data from 1978 to 2020 and grouped income data in 31 provinces from 1980 to 2020. The results show that under the standards of the National Bureau of Statistics, the scale of middle-income groups in China continues to expand, with the proportion of middle-income groups in 2020 reaching 36.79%; within the middle-income group, there is a large income disparity and a higher level of vulnerability; the spatial distribution of middle-income groups is uneven, with more in eastern China than in western China; and five types of people constitute the main components of middle-income groups, with a total scale of about 500 million. Finally, through the four-dimensional comparison of standards, methods, data and income distribution, the research results are proved credible, providing effective support for further policy formulation to expand the proportion of middle-income groups.

Key words middle-income group; standard defining; scale measurement; characteristic analysis

 

■作者简介 朱 兰，中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所、经济大数据与政策评估实验室副研究员，北京 100732；万广华，复旦大学世界经济研究所教授，上海 200433。

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