作　者：邓明 黄凯峰
关键词：转移支付；不确定性；地方支出乘数；工具变量；经济增长
摘　要：

地方政府财政收入的不确定性对其财税行为会造成影响，进而可能影响到财政支出的经济增长效应。使用1998-2007 年中国县级层面的财政数据，以2001 年民族地区转移支付制度的确立作为工具变量，估算中国地区层面的财政支出乘数，并研究转移支付不确定性对地区层面财政支出乘数的影响，实证结果表明，县级地区转移支付不确定性每增加1 个标准差会导致县级地区财政支出乘数减少0.57，专项转移支付不确定性是导致地方政府财政支出乘数下降的主要因素，而一般性转移支付不确定性对地方政府财政支出乘数没有显著影响。机制研究表明，转移支付不确定性通过影响地方政府的财政收支行为，使得地方政府提高当地企业的实际税率，减少了当地企业的产出，进而影响到地区层面产出。

 

Fiscal Transfer Payment Regimes, the Efficiency Improvement Of Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth

The Sudy Based on the Uncertainty of Transfer Payments

Deng Ming，Huang Kaifeng（Xiamen University）

Abstract The uncertainty of transfer payment received by local governments can have an impact on  their fiscal behavior, which in turn may affect the economic growth effect of fiscal expenditures. Based on county-level fiscal data in China from 1998 to 2007 and taking the establishment of the transfer payment system in areas with concentrations of ethnic minorities in 2001 as an instrumental variable, this paper measures the local fiscal multipliers and investigates the effect of transfer payment uncertainty on local fiscal multipliers. The empirical results show that each 1 standard deviation increase in transfer uncertainty at the county level leads to a 0.57 decrease in the fiscal expenditure multiplier at the county level. heterogeneity tests find that special purpose transfer uncertainty is the leading contributor to a decrease in the fiscal expenditure multiplier of local governments, while general transfer uncertainty has no significant effect on the fiscal expenditure multiplier of local governments. The study on the mechanism, on the other hand, shows that transfer uncertainty reduces the output of local firms by affecting the fiscal revenue and expenditure behavior of local governments, causing them to raise the effective tax rate of local firms, which in turn affects regional output.

Key words transfer payment; uncertainty; local fiscal expenditure multiplier; instrumental variable; economic growth

 

■作者简介 邓 明，厦门大学经济学院教授，福建 厦门 361005； 黄凯峰，厦门大学经济学院博士研究生。

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