作　者：汪勇 马新彬
关键词：投资构成；经济增长；内生技术进步；宏观政策
摘　要：

进入新发展阶段，我国经济正处于新旧动能转换关键期，外部环境不确定性、不稳定性增加，稳增长、促发展、调结构压力较大，强化宏观政策对高质量发展的统筹支持十分关键。研发补贴等供给侧政策，短期内对稳增长的作用较弱，但能够推动企业提高研发投资占比，提升经济增长潜力，这一效应随着研发外溢效应的上升而不断增强。与此不同，居民消费补贴等需求侧政策，长期内持续推动经济增长的作用相对有限，但短期内促进固定资产投资、稳定经济增长的作用突出，该效应在资本产出弹性下降时会进一步凸显。推动经济高质量发展，要充分发挥供需政策促进长短期经济增长的合力。

 

Exogenous Shocks, Investment Composition and Economic Growth

——A Dual Perspective Based on Supply-side and Demand-side

Wang Yong（Chinese Academy of Social Sciences）Ma Xinbin（The People's Bank of China）

Abstract  Entering a new stage of development, China's economy is currently at a crucial phase of replacing the old growth drivers with new ones. The increasing uncertainty and instability of the external environment have added substantial pressure on stabilizing growth, promoting development, and restructuring the economy. Hence, it is critical to strengthen the coordination and support of macro policies for high-quality development. Supply-side policies such as R&D subsidies, which may not make a big difference in short-term growth stabilization, can drive enterprises to increase their proportions of R&D investment and enhance the potential for economic growth. This effect is continuously amplified by the increasing spillover effects of R&D. In contrast, demand-side policies such as coupons and subsidies have a relatively limited effect on sustaining long-term economic growth, but they significantly promote fixed investment and stabilize economic growth in the short term. This effect becomes more pronounced when the elasticity of output to capital declines. To promote high-quality economic development, it is essential to fully leverage the combined forces of supply and demand policies to boost both short-term and long-term economic growth.

Key words  investment composition; economic growth; endogenous technological progress; macroeconomic policy

■ 作者简介  汪勇，中国社会科学院金融研究所副研究员，北京 100710；马新彬，中国人民银行高级经济师，北京 100045。

 

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