作　者：李慧 叶初升
关键词：消费经济；消费低迷；经历体验效应；大饥荒；消费倾向
摘　要：

消费是牵引经济发展的重要力量，然而近年来我国消费一直处于低迷状态。三年新冠疫情的经历体验可能改变一些民众的消费倾向，影响当下和未来的消费。1959-1961 年的大饥荒波及范围广，持续时间长，距离当下久远，为讨论新冠疫情等重大不利事件的经历体验对个体消费行为的长期影响提供了借鉴。大饥荒重塑了经历者的风险偏好和时间偏好，对经历者的消费水平产生了长期负向影响，尤其是在三组分类中，对非稳定收入家庭的个体、处于中等社会经济水平家庭的个体以及女性经历者的负向影响更为显著，但数字支付的使用却可以缓解这一负向影响。因此，后疫情时代扩大内需应减少经济发展的不确定性，着力促进居民尤其是女性收入稳定增长，缓解中等收入群体生活压力，支持数字经济发展。

 

 

The Impact of the Experience of Significant Adverse Events On Individual Consumption

Li Hui（Zhengzhou University） Ye Chusheng（Wuhan University）

Abstract Consumption serves as a pivotal force propelling economic development. However, in recent years, China's consumption has remained sluggish. The three-year experience of the COVID-19 pandemic may have potentially altered individuals' propensity to consume, affecting both current and future consumption. The Great Famine of 1959-1961, with its vast scope and extended duration, occurred long ago, therefore it can offer valuable insights into the long-term effects of significant adverse events like the COVID-19 pandemic on individual consumption behavior. The Great Famine reshaped the risk preferences and time preferences of those who experienced it, leaving a lasting negative impact on their consumption levels. This impact was particularly pronounced in three specific groups: individuals from households without stable income, those from households in the middle socioeconomic stratum, and female survivors. However, the adoption of digital payments could mitigate this adverse effect. Therefore, in the post-pandemic era, expanding domestic demand calls for measures to reduce economic uncertainty, vigorously promote stable income growth for residents, especially women, alleviate the living pressures on middle-income groups and support the development of the digital economy.

Key words consumption economy; sluggish consumption; experience effect; the Great Famine; propensity to consume

 

■作者简介 李 慧，郑州大学商学院讲师，河南 郑州 450001；

叶初升，武汉大学经济与管理学院、经济发展研究中心教授，湖北 武汉 430072。

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