作　者：刘晓星 杨化超 张旭
关键词：经济增长；内在价值；安全边际；价值规律；指数测度
摘　要：

基于马克思价值规律理论，将经济增长分解为基本要素决定的内在价值成分和扰动冲击引发的周期成分，结合失业率、通货膨胀等宏观变量，可构建经济增长的安全边际理论分析框架及测度方法。在此基础上实证检验中国经济增长过程中的安全运行边际状态，揭示其变化规律、省际分布特征、空间溢出效应及驱动因素，可以发现：中国经济增长的内在价值不断提高，安全边际稳步提升，三大产业的运行态势呈现差异；中国经济增长的安全边际具有显著的区制转换特征，省际层面的安全边际存在一定的空间溢出效应。

 

The Intrinsic Value and Margin of Safety In China's Economic Growth

Liu Xiaoxing，Yang Huachao（Southeast University）

Zhang Xu（Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology）

Abstract Based on Marxist law of value, this study decomposes economic growth into an intrinsic value component determined by basic factors and a cyclical component triggered by disturbances and shocks, and constructs a theoretical analytical framework and measurement method for the margin of safety in economic growth by integrating macroeconomic variables such as the unemployment rate and inflation. On this basis, it examines through empirical evidence the state of safe operation margin in the process of China's eco‐ nomic growth, revealing its evolutionary patterns, inter-provincial distribution characteristics, spatial spill‐ over effects and driving factors. The research findings show that: the intrinsic value of China's economic growth has been continuously increasing, with its margin of safety steadily improving, though operational trends diverge across the three major industries; The margin of safety in China's economic growth exhibits significant regime-switching characteristics, with a certain spatial spillover effects displayed at the provincial level.

Key words  economic growth; intrinsic value; margin of safety; law of value; index measurement

 

■    作者简介 刘晓星，东南大学经济学院教授，江苏 南京 211189；

杨化超，东南大学经济管理学院博士研究生；

张  旭，南京信息工程大学管理工程学院教授，江苏 南京 210044。

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